Getting monetary policy right requires looking at near- and medium-term economic impacts of cyclical and secular forces, ...

Banks may be indirectly exposed to trade policy through lending and through the broader effects of trade on the economy. Analysis finds that exposure to recent trade shocks was concentrated in large ...

Regional engagement furthers the SF Fed’s mission of advancing the nation’s monetary, financial, and payment systems to build ...

Our recent SF Fed Blog discusses how appropriately adjusting recent labor market data shows that the growth in labor supply ...

In the wide-ranging conversation, President Daly discussed the major factors shaping the U.S. economy, how the Federal ...

We study the pass-through of corporate taxes into consumer prices, leveraging 1,058 municipal tax rate changes affecting 4,754 German firms. A 1 p.p. increase in a producer’s tax rate raises retail ...

Involuntary part-time employment—the share of people who work less than 35 hours per week but want and are available to work full-time—has increased since 2023. While this contrasts with steady ...

The natural rate of interest is an elusive concept in theory and practice. However, it is essential for central banks’ calibration of the policy rate. Model consistent measures are often too extreme ...

We explore the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II and provide methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts. Using a compositional ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District edged down slightly during the mid-August to September reporting period. Employment levels were little changed on net as most employers held head counts ...