A new executive order seen by WIRED prohibits New York state employees from using insider knowledge to enrich themselves with prediction market bets. New York has banned state employees from using ...
TRADERS OF OIL futures are a sunny bunch. On April 17th, after Iran’s foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz “completely open”, the price of Brent crude fell by 10%, to $90 a barrel. Within ...
At long last, the job market might be giving the Class of 2026 an early graduation present. After years of steady deterioration, there are early signs entry-level hiring is picking up. A widely ...
Bitcoin’s rally toward $75,000 is running into a wall of supply just as institutional demand is holding steady. The move higher has been driven largely by macro flows rather than a broad surge in ...
Sign up for Work in Progress, a newsletter where Rogé Karma investigates the mysteries of a complicated economy. How does a country get rich? For decades, the ...
Investment firm Bernstein estimates that by 2030, prediction market volumes will surge to roughly $1 trillion. Dollar volumes on the markets surged in 2024, spurred by the U.S. presidential election, ...
The Cboe Volatility Index, a gauge of expected stock-market turbulence over the next month, tumbled after President Donald Trump agreed to a temporary ceasefire in his war against Iran. The index, ...
In January, Kalshi prediction markets showed a 27% chance that the S&P 500 would drop below 5,900 in 2026. But the probability has since increased to 60% as the Iran conflict has pushed oil prices ...
A merely bad outlook might be good enough for the markets, our columnist says. By Jeff Sommer Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy. The war in the Persian ...
In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, student groups pushed for curriculum change in economics. They wanted to learn about real-world economics beyond the stylized models that embroil ...
While that sounds like a coin toss, when backtested over 80 years of data, every time the model's odds crossed the 50% line, a recession followed within a year. And here's the kicker: That 49% reading ...
U.S. stocks extended their slide on Friday, dragging the Nasdaq deeper into correction territory and pulling the S&P 500 closer to one. Investors appear to have discounted President Donald Trump’s ...
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