IRGC warns the US as Iran consolidates power amid leadership uncertainty. Iran closes airspace by May 8 at 14.5% YES, by May ...

The Polymarket question on whether Donald Trump will announce the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May ...

The market for “Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?” currently shows a 2.6% YES probability, down from 3% in ...

Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid military operations. Withdrawal by May 31, 2026 at 2.4% YES; by June 30, ...

Red Cross warns of renewed Iran attacks amid airspace closure concerns. Iran closes its airspace by May 8 at 14.5% YES, by ...

In the “Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 on May 2?” market, the current pricing reflects a 0.1% YES. This unchanged pricing ...

OPEC+ raised oil output by 188,000 bpd amid geopolitical tensions. Oil hitting $90 by June priced at 100% YES.

Iran's airspace closure likelihood rises amid escalating Israel-Iran energy conflict. Closure by May 8 at 16.5% YES, by May ...

UAE resumes full air traffic operations, indicating reduced threats. Iran closes its airspace by May 8 at 16.5% YES, by May ...

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026 remains unlikely amid stalled diplomacy. Ceasefire by June 30 at 9.5% YES.

UK local elections could challenge Labour's leadership. Starmer out by June 30, 2026 at 40.5% YES; out by December 31, 2026 ...

Russia and Ukraine dispute control in the Sumy region amid ongoing conflict. Ceasefire by April 30, 2026 priced at 24% YES.