Bayesian probability is better than other future-predicting systems because it also is one of the few methods that accounts for how unpredictable humans really are.

In this paper, I argue that this conclusion is premature—the Bayesian objection can survive the transition from classical to intuitionistic probability, albeit in a slightly altered form. I shall ...

First, probability is interpreted subjectively as “credence” — a reasonable quantification of personal belief about the possibility of an outcome; second, when reliable frequency data are available, ...

Physics Chance: Peace talks in the probability wars Working out probabilities is just simple maths, right? Wrong – from drug trials to court cases, being Bayesian or frequentist can make all the ...

We use a Bayesian nonparametric approach. The different species proportions are assumed to be random and the observations from the population exchangeable. We provide a Bayesian estimator, under ...