M.G. Siegler is the author of Spyglass, an independent technology newsletter and analysis platform. He is a regular monthly ...

Bitcoin ETFs see $532M inflows amid geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin below $68K on May 4 at 0.1% YES, Ethereum above $1,800 at ...

Iran accused the US of killing civilians, raising airspace closure odds to 22.5% by May 8 and 51.5% by May 31. Airspace ...

Ethereum Price on May 5 market shows a 99.9% probability of resolving YES, indicating strong confidence in Ethereum ...

Iran threatens European bases amid rising tensions. Fall of the Iranian regime by May 31 at 2.6% YES, while military action ...

Iran reinforces its stance on the Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions. Blockade lift by May 31, 2026 at 25% YES.

In the market for “Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 7?”, the current pricing is highly supportive of a YES ...

Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz, leading to vessel clustering near Dubai. Traffic normalization by June at ...

SNP is projected to win a fifth term in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. SNP winning most seats at 68.5% YES.

The Fed’s decision on rate cuts post-June 2026 meeting is priced at 2.5% YES, while the likelihood of no Fed rate cuts in ...

US destroyers crossed the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian fire, raising tensions. Blockade lifting by May 31, 2026 at 26% YES.

Israel orders evacuations in southern Lebanon amid military operations. Withdrawal by June 30, 2026 at 7.5% YES, by May 31, ...